When the Data Challenged Me: What Rock Island’s Police Hiring Numbers Actually Show

For decades, I have heard — and shared — concerns that racial bias may influence police hiring in Rock Island, negatively impacting police-community relations. I recently published data that shows our overall police force is 88% White and only 8% Black. This post was met with a mixture of gut-level agreement that the system is rigged, with accusations that non-White applicants don't apply as often or drop out at higher rates and that tracking this type of data is problematic because we should be "colorblind" when it comes to hiring.

This one chart on demographics and reader questions invited me to dig deeper. How many people apply? What's the process of getting hired? How many people make it through each stage? Why is it so hard to recruit and retain officers?

The most eye-opening part of this research was realizing that some of our assumptions — mine included — may have carried more bias than the process itself.

After reviewing hiring data from February 2023 through February 2026, the most recent dataset available, I did not find evidence of widespread discrimination in the department’s hiring practices. The data instead reflects a police force that is increasingly mirroring the diversity of our community.

That doesn’t mean there were never issues in the past — I do not have data from 20, 10, or even 5 years ago to make that claim. But for this recent period, the numbers should give Rock Islanders reason to feel encouraged. The hiring pipeline does not show systemic racial exclusion, and the department appears to be moving in a direction that better reflects the community it serves.

so, what did I find out?

The Applicant Pool Is More Diverse Than Many Realize

Between February 2023 and February 2026, 187 individuals applied to become Rock Island police officers. The breakdown — shown in the chart below — reflects a meaningfully diverse applicant pool.

Race	# of Applicants	% of Applicants	% Latest Census Data for Rock Island	Difference
Asian/Pacific Islander	6	3.21%	3.80%	-0.59%
Black/African American	52	27.81%	17.20%	10.61%
Hispanic	21	11.23%	13.30%	-2.07%
Multi Race	7	3.74%	8.90%	-5.16%
White	101	54.01%	65%	-10.99%
Total	187	100%	100%

Notably:

• Black applicants represent 27.8% of the applicant pool, compared to 17.2% of the city’s population.

• White applicants represent 54% of the applicant pool, compared to 65% of the city’s population.

• Hispanic applicants are slightly below census representation.

• Multi-race applicants are below census representation, though numbers are small.

  
  

The takeaway: the pipeline at the application stage is not racially homogenous. According to Chief McCloud, the police department works hard to place recruitment materials throughout Rock Island to attract a diverse pool of applicants and to market through various strategies (online, in-person, career fairs, video, posters, etc.). This work appears to be paying off in attracting applicants.

Do Hiring Outcomes Mirror the Applicant Pool?

During the same reporting period, 23 out of the original 187 applicants were hired as officers.

Race	# of New Hires	% of New Hires	% Latest Census Data for Rock Island	Difference
Asian/Pacific Islander	1	4.35%	3.80%	0.55%
Black/African American	5	21.74%	17.20%	4.54%
Hispanic	2	8.70%	13.30%	-4.60%
Multi Race	0	0.00%	8.90%	-8.90%
White	15	65.22%	65%	0.22%
Total	23	100%	100%

When compared to both the applicant pool and census data:

• White hires mirror the city’s overall demographics.

• Black hires are slightly below their share of applicants but above their share of the city population.

• Hispanic and multi-race hires are somewhat lower than census representation — though the total numbers are small.

  
  

With only 23 hires, a difference of one or two individuals significantly shifts percentages. There is no dramatic divergence between who applies and who is ultimately hired.

That is not what systemic racial exclusion typically looks like. It is also worth noting that as Rock Island's population ages, our demographics are shifting and will require increased efforts to ensure our police force reflects our community, putting a bit more pressure on these figures.

Investigating the Stages Where Bias Is Most Suspected

Community members have raised concerns that the commission interview and psychological testing stages might disproportionately eliminate racial groups. Those are reasonable places to look — they involve judgment, discretion, human evaluation and potential testing bias.

According to Chief McCloud, the process moves in this order:

1. Application

2. Agility Test

3. Written Test

4. Background Check

5. Commission Interview

6. Psychological Testing

   
   

So I examined each stage.

Who Makes It Through the Pipeline?

The graph above shows the full pipeline progression by race — from application to hire.

A few key observations:

Race	Applied	Agility	Written	Background	Commission	Psychology	Hired	% Through
Asian/Pacific Islander	6	3	2	2	1	1	1	16.7%
Black/African American	52	19	17	14	9	7	5	9.6%
Hispanic	21	8	6	4	2	2	2	9.5%
Multi Race	7	3	2	2	0	0	0	0%
White	101	29	27	25	18	16	15	14.9%
Total:	187	62	54	47	30	26	23	12.30%

• Only 62 of 187 applicants reached the agility test.

• Only 23 were ultimately hired.

• Overall completion from application to hire was about 12%.

  
  

Importantly, attrition occurred across all racial groups and was due to both self-selecting out and passing rates.

White candidates ultimately had a 14.9% completion rate from application to hire. Black candidates had a 9.6% completion rate. Hispanic candidates had a 9.5% completion rate.

Those are differences — but not dramatic collapses at any single stage.

Stage-by-Stage Findings

The charts below show the outcomes for each stage of the hiring process and note how many people self-selected or dropped out prior to each stage.

AGILITY TESTING

Race	Tested	Passed	% Passed	Dropped Out Prior to This Stage
White	29	27	93.10%	72
Black/African American	19	17	89.47%	33
Hispanic	8	6	75.00%	13
Asian/Pacific Islander	3	2	66.67%	3
Multi Race	2	2	100.00%	5

WRITTEN EXAM

Race	Tested	Passed	% Passed	Dropped Out Prior to This Stage
White	27	25	92.59%	0
Black/African American	17	14	82.35%	0
Hispanic	6	4	66.67%	0
Asian/Pacific Islander	2	2	100.00%	0
Multi Race	2	2	100.00%	0

BACKGROUND CHECK

Race	Tested	Passed	% Passed	Dropped Out Prior to This Stage
White	25	20	80.00%	0
Black/African American	14	10	71.43%	0
Hispanic	4	3	75.00%	0
Asian/Pacific Islander	2	1	50.00%	0
Multi Race	2	2	100.00%	0

COMMISSION INTERVIEW

Race	Tested	Passed	% Passed	Dropped Out Prior to This Stage
White	18	16	88.89%	2
Black/African American	9	7	77.78%	1
Hispanic	2	2	100.00%	1
Asian/Pacific Islander	1	1	100.00%	0
Multi Race	0	0	0%	2

PSYCHOLOGICAL EVALUATION

Race	Tested	Passed	% Passed	Dropped Out Prior to This Stage
White	16	14	87.50%	0
Black/African American	7	6	85.71%	0
Hispanic	2	2	100.00%	0
Asian/Pacific Islander	1	1	100.00%	0
Multi Race	0	0	0%	0

Do Minority Candidates Drop Out at Higher Rates?

Another concern is self-selection — whether candidates from certain groups disproportionately exit the process. The largest drop-off occurs before structured testing begins and attrition affects every racial group. The following data reflects the dropout percentage between initial application and agility testing, which is where the largest decrease occurs:

White -- 72% dropout rate

Black -- 63% dropout rate

Hispanic -- 62% dropout rate

Asian/Pacific Islander -- 50% dropout rate

Multi Race -- 71% dropout rate

There is no evidence in this dataset that minority candidates disproportionately “disappear” at later, more subjective stages. The small size of the data set as the process advances makes drawing meaningful conclusions difficult.

Conclusion

The data from the past three years does not show strong evidence of racial bias or systemic discrimination in Rock Island’s police hiring process. While there are modest differences in pass rates at certain stages, the sample sizes are small enough that drawing sweeping conclusions from those gaps would be unscientific and unwise.

This snapshot does not prove bias is impossible. It does not invalidate lived experience. And it does not tell us what the picture looked like 20, 10, or even five years ago.

What it does show is that, in this recent period, we do not see dramatic disparities at the commission interview or psychological testing stages — the areas where bias was most suspected. That matters. And it suggests a department that is, at minimum, moving in a more reflective direction.

The Bigger Issue: Recruitment and Readiness

Two structural challenges stand out more clearly than bias:

• Total applicant volume is modest.

• Early-stage readiness appears to be a major factor.

  
  

Out of 187 applicants over three years, only 61 reached agility testing. That means the largest drop-off occurs before most structured evaluation even begins.

If we want more local officers, a more diverse force, and more officers rooted in Rock Island, the conversation must expand beyond scrutiny of interview panels. We should also be asking how we prepare and encourage qualified candidates to succeed in the first place.

Constructive steps could include:

• Written exam preparation programs

• Background readiness education

• Physical fitness support initiatives

• Mentorship pipelines from Rock Island High School

• Cadet-to-officer development tracks

• Internships within the department

• Weekend informational “mini academies” for interested applicants

  
  

If we want different outcomes, we may need to invest in building a stronger local preparation pipeline. I understand that the department is actively working in this direction.

What This Investigation Taught Me

If we truly want a more responsive, community-rooted police department, we also have to examine how we talk about and relate to the officers who serve here. Not in other cities. Not in viral videos. But here, in Rock Island. Young people decide whether to pursue public service based in part on how that service is viewed in their own community.

If we consistently frame policing only through suspicion and cynicism (raising my hand as guilty here), we should not be surprised when thoughtful, service-minded young people hesitate to step forward. That doesn’t mean ignoring misconduct or lowering standards. In fact, accountability is essential to trust. But accountability and affirmation can coexist. Data helps us be accountable to our bias. I appreciate Rob Baugous and Amanda Torres from the City of Rock Island for responding to my incessant requests for ever more detailed information. Without the data, I would likely still hold the belief that the psychological evaluations are biased.

If we ask officers to check their bias, to adapt, and to serve a new era of community expectations, we must also be willing to check our own assumptions and recognize the value of the role when it is carried out with integrity. Recruitment is not just a department issue — it is a cultural one. We are part of the pipeline too. The way we speak about policing in Rock Island will shape who chooses to wear the badge here.

Public trust is not built by dismissing concerns. It is built by investigating them seriously and adjusting when the evidence challenges our expectations. Data should inform us — even when it humbles us.

Where We Go From Here

The question is not simply: “Is the hiring process biased?”

It becomes: “How do we expand, strengthen, and prepare the pipeline so more qualified local candidates succeed?”

If we want a department that reflects our city, we must grow that pipeline intentionally, thoughtfully, and transparently.

That is work worth doing and work this investigation shows is underway.